New York 22nd District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- D+20.8
- 80% range
- D+9.3 to D+32.3
- Partisan lean
- D+9.0
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.19%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+21.0
- Blended
- D+21.0
- Similar-race shift
- −1.4
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+9.0
- Elasticity
- 0.97
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+22.4
- 2024 margin
- D+7.7
- 2020 margin
- D+11.6
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+3.9
- Votes cast, 2024
- 362,520
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 616,358
- Median age
- 50.5
- Median household income
- $68,900
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 34%
- White
- 79%
- Black
- 10%
- Hispanic
- 5%
- Asian
- 4%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| John W Mannion | DEM | $2.7M | $1.8M |
| Kailee Buller | REP | $267k | $187k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.