Ohio 15th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Don Leonard
30%
Republican
Mike Carey
70%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+5.0
- 80% range
- R+17.5 to D+7.5
- Partisan lean
- R+9.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.85%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.56×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+8.8
- Fundamentals
- R+3.9
- Blended
- R+4.4
- Similar-race shift
- +1.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- June 25, 2026
- Democrat
- 38.1%
- Republican
- 46.9%
- Undecided / other
- 12.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+9.1
- Elasticity
- 0.93
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −0.7
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+5.7