Georgia — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Keisha Lance Bottoms
51%
Republican
Rick Jackson
49%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+0.1
- 80% range
- R+8.8 to D+9.0
- Partisan lean
- R+1.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.20×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
58%42%
Polls 58%Fundamentals 42%
- Polling average
- R+1.9
- Fundamentals
- D+5.1
- Blended
- D+0.3
- Similar-race shift
- +0.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 6.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 7
- Most recent
- October 3, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.4%
- Republican
- 49.3%
- Undecided / other
- 3.3%
- Spread between polls
- 1.3 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+1.3
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+4.3
The polls behind this number11 most recent of 8 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | October 3, 2026 | 600 LV | 49 | 51 | R+2 |
| Big Data Poll | September 23, 2026 | 678 LV | 50 | 51 | R+1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | September 23, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | August 17, 2026 | 800 LV | 46 | 46 | R+0 |
| Quantus Insights | August 1, 2026 | 815 LV | 46 | 45 | D+2 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | July 16, 2026 | 1,060 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 |
| Wick | June 30, 2026 | 1,175 LV | 43 | 43 | R+1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | June 27, 2026 | 1,002 RV | 52 | 47 | D+5 |
| Concord Public Opinion PartnersDEM | June 2, 2026 | 510 LV | 53 | 38 | D+15 |
| Echelon Insights | April 9, 2026 | 407 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 |
| Echelon Insights | April 9, 2026 | 407 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.