Georgia — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Keisha Lance Bottoms
55%
Republican
Rick Jackson
45%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+1.0
- 80% range
- R+9.3 to D+11.4
- Partisan lean
- R+1.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.15×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
51%49%
Polls 51%Fundamentals 49%
- Polling average
- D+0.2
- Fundamentals
- D+3.1
- Blended
- D+1.6
- Similar-race shift
- +0.1
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 7
- Most recent
- August 17, 2026
- Democrat
- 46.3%
- Republican
- 46.1%
- Undecided / other
- 7.6%
- Spread between polls
- 1.6 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+1.3
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+3.0