Texas 24th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+11.3
- 80% range
- R+22.9 to D+0.3
- Partisan lean
- R+15.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.20%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+11.1
- Blended
- R+11.1
- Similar-race shift
- +0.1
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+15.1
- Elasticity
- 0.96
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −1.9
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+11.3
- 2024 margin
- R+16.4
- 2020 margin
- R+12.6
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+3.8
- Votes cast, 2024
- 373,064
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 585,881
- Median age
- 47.5
- Median household income
- $105,900
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 52%
- White
- 63%
- Black
- 8%
- Hispanic
- 16%
- Asian
- 10%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Ann Van Duyne | REP | $2.5M | $2.9M |
| Kevin Beryl Burge | DEM | $210k | $37k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.