North Carolina — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Roy Cooper
89%
Republican
Michael Whatley
11%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+8.2
- 80% range
- R+0.6 to D+16.9
- Partisan lean
- R+2.5
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.14×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
67%33%
Polls 67%Fundamentals 33%
- Polling average
- D+9.0
- Fundamentals
- D+7.0
- Blended
- D+8.3
- Similar-race shift
- +0.5
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 17
- Distinct pollsters
- 10
- Most recent
- October 3, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.4%
- Republican
- 41.4%
- Undecided / other
- 4.9%
- Spread between polls
- 2.5 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+2.5
- Elasticity
- 0.91
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.7
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+6.6
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 17 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina University | October 3, 2026 | 810 LV | 53 | 46 | D+7 |
| Big Data Poll | September 29, 2026 | 642 LV | 51 | 39 | D+12 |
| InsiderAdvantage | September 17, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 48 | 43 | D+6 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | September 16, 2026 | 706 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
| Harper Polling | September 15, 2026 | 608 LV | 49 | 34 | D+15 |
| East Carolina University | September 3, 2026 | 675 LV | 52 | 44 | D+8 |
| Elon University/YouGov | August 31, 2026 | 565 LV | 49 | 38 | D+11 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | August 12, 2026 | 660 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | August 12, 2026 | 800 RV | 48 | 41 | D+7 |
| Harper Polling | August 10, 2026 | 600 LV | 52 | 39 | D+13 |
| Change ResearchDEM | August 6, 2026 | 915 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 |
| Change Research | August 1, 2026 | 967 LV | 50 | 41 | D+9 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | July 27, 2026 | 1,005 RV | 53 | 44 | D+9 |
| Elon University/YouGov | July 23, 2026 | 466 LV | 53 | 42 | D+11 |
| Elon University/YouGov | July 23, 2026 | 717 RV | 51 | 35 | D+16 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Cooper | DEM | $35.0M | $20.7M |
| Michael Whatley | REP | $11.3M | $3.5M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.