North Carolina — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Roy Cooper
83%
Republican
Michael Whatley
17%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+7.7
- 80% range
- R+2.8 to D+18.2
- Partisan lean
- R+2.5
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.18×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
55%45%
Polls 55%Fundamentals 45%
- Polling average
- D+10.2
- Fundamentals
- D+4.6
- Blended
- D+8.3
- Similar-race shift
- −0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 5.6 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 11
- Distinct pollsters
- 7
- Most recent
- August 10, 2026
- Democrat
- 51.0%
- Republican
- 40.8%
- Undecided / other
- 7.7%
- Spread between polls
- 3.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+2.5
- Elasticity
- 0.91
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.8
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+5.0