South Dakota 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Nicole Gronli
3%
Republican
Marty Jackley
97%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+18.7
- 80% range
- R+31.3 to R+6.2
- Partisan lean
- R+28.9
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.06%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+18.5
- Blended
- R+18.5
- Similar-race shift
- +1.6
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+28.9
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+20.1
How it voted for presidenttwo-party
- 2024 margin
- R+30.0
- 2020 margin
- R+26.9
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+3.1
- Votes cast, 2024
- 426,390
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
Who lives hereCensus ACS
- Population
- 669,255
- Median age
- 49.4
- Median household income
- $69,700
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 30%
- White
- 83%
- Black
- 2%
- Hispanic
- 4%
- Asian
- 2%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.