Ohio — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Amy Acton
69%
Republican
Vivek Ramaswamy
31%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+3.5
- 80% range
- R+5.4 to D+12.3
- Partisan lean
- R+10.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.20×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
61%39%
Polls 61%Fundamentals 39%
- Polling average
- D+5.6
- Fundamentals
- R+1.4
- Blended
- D+3.6
- Similar-race shift
- +0.5
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 7.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 10
- Distinct pollsters
- 9
- Most recent
- October 6, 2026
- Democrat
- 49.2%
- Republican
- 43.6%
- Undecided / other
- 5.8%
- Spread between polls
- 3.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.2
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+1.8
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 10 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficientREP | October 6, 2026 | 925 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
| CNN/SSRS | October 5, 2026 | 760 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | October 1, 2026 | 616 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
| Big Data Poll | September 27, 2026 | 680 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| Suffolk University | September 27, 2026 | 500 LV | 50 | 41 | D+9 |
| Marist University | September 27, 2026 | 1,298 RV | 50 | 44 | D+6 |
| Wedgewood Polls | August 13, 2026 | 800 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | August 10, 2026 | 1,008 RV | 48 | 50 | R+2 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | June 28, 2026 | 601 LV | 47 | 47 | D+0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | June 16, 2026 | 800 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | June 1, 2026 | 1,015 RV | 50 | 49 | D+1 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | April 14, 2026 | 1,000 RV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| Echelon Insights | April 9, 2026 | 413 LV | 44 | 49 | R+5 |
| Quantus Insights | March 14, 2026 | 809 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 |
| EMC Research | February 22, 2026 | 1,343 LV | 53 | 43 | D+10 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.