Virginia — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Mark Warner
99%
Republican
Bert Mizusawa
1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+20.1
- 80% range
- D+10.0 to D+30.2
- Partisan lean
- D+7.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.48×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
19%81%
Polls 19%Fundamentals 81%
- Polling average
- D+16.5
- Fundamentals
- D+21.2
- Blended
- D+20.3
- Similar-race shift
- −1.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.6 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- June 16, 2026
- Democrat
- 49.1%
- Republican
- 32.5%
- Undecided / other
- 14.9%
- Spread between polls
- 0.5 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+7.3
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- +4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+22.5
The polls behind this number2 most recent of 2 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | June 16, 2026 | 996 RV | 48 | 32 | D+16 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | June 16, 2026 | — LV | 50 | 33 | D+17 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Robert Warner | DEM | $17.9M | $16.1M |
| Bert K Mizusawa | REP | $419k | $90k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.