California 21st District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- D+21.9
- 80% range
- D+10.4 to D+33.5
- Partisan lean
- D+10.4
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.12%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+22.1
- Blended
- D+22.1
- Similar-race shift
- −0.6
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+10.4
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- +1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.8
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+22.7
- 2024 margin
- D+6.2
- 2020 margin
- D+21.6
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+15.4
- Votes cast, 2024
- 201,804
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 537,056
- Median age
- 43.5
- Median household income
- $57,100
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 17%
- White
- 23%
- Black
- 6%
- Hispanic
- 60%
- Asian
- 11%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Costa | DEM | $1.3M | $939k |
| Kyle Kirkland | REP | $339k | $18k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.