Ohio — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Sherrod Brown
64%
Republican
Jon Husted
36%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+2.3
- 80% range
- R+6.1 to D+10.7
- Partisan lean
- R+10.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.08×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
64%36%
Polls 64%Fundamentals 36%
- Polling average
- D+4.3
- Fundamentals
- R+3.5
- Blended
- D+2.5
- Similar-race shift
- +0.5
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 7.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 13
- Distinct pollsters
- 11
- Most recent
- October 6, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.6%
- Republican
- 43.3%
- Undecided / other
- 7.8%
- Spread between polls
- 2.6 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.2
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +2.8
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+4.0
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 13 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficientREP | October 6, 2026 | 925 LV | 43 | 44 | R+1 |
| co/efficientREP | October 6, 2026 | 925 LV | 45 | 46 | R+1 |
| CNN/SSRS | October 5, 2026 | 760 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | September 29, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 44 | 43 | D+1 |
| Big Data Poll | September 27, 2026 | 680 LV | 46 | 43 | D+4 |
| Marist University | September 27, 2026 | 1,298 RV | 51 | 43 | D+8 |
| Quantus Insights | September 23, 2026 | 695 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 |
| Trafalgar GroupREP | September 16, 2026 | 1,085 LV | 45 | 42 | D+3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | September 9, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 42 | D+5 |
| Wedgewood Polls | August 13, 2026 | 800 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | August 10, 2026 | 1,008 RV | 53 | 45 | D+8 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | June 28, 2026 | 601 LV | 47 | 50 | R+3 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | June 16, 2026 | 800 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | June 1, 2026 | 1,015 RV | 53 | 45 | D+8 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | April 14, 2026 | 1,000 RV | 47 | 50 | R+3 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sherrod Brown | DEM | $38.6M | $16.2M |
| Jon Husted | REP | $14.4M | $9.4M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.