Florida — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
David Jolly
27%
Republican
Byron Donalds
73%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+6.0
- 80% range
- R+18.8 to D+6.9
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.62×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
51%49%
Polls 51%Fundamentals 49%
- Polling average
- R+6.3
- Fundamentals
- R+4.4
- Blended
- R+5.4
- Similar-race shift
- +0.4
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 7
- Most recent
- July 26, 2026
- Democrat
- 39.4%
- Republican
- 45.7%
- Undecided / other
- 14.9%
- Spread between polls
- 2.9 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+4.8