Florida — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
David Jolly
30%
Republican
Byron Donalds
70%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+3.6
- 80% range
- R+12.8 to D+5.5
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.25×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
60%40%
Polls 60%Fundamentals 40%
- Polling average
- R+3.9
- Fundamentals
- R+2.8
- Blended
- R+3.4
- Similar-race shift
- +0.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.1 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 9
- Distinct pollsters
- 5
- Most recent
- October 7, 2026
- Democrat
- 43.2%
- Republican
- 47.1%
- Undecided / other
- 9.7%
- Spread between polls
- 4.3 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+3.5
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 9 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | October 7, 2026 | 836 LV | 45 | 45 | D+0 |
| Targoz Market Research | October 4, 2026 | 1,200 RV | 39 | 48 | R+9 |
| Targoz Market Research | October 4, 2026 | 857 LV | 42 | 52 | R+10 |
| Change Research | September 27, 2026 | 1,063 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | September 21, 2026 | 830 LV | 39 | 51 | R+12 |
| St. Pete Polls | September 17, 2026 | 913 LV | 43 | 44 | R+0 |
| Change Research | September 9, 2026 | 1,107 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 |
| Targoz Market Research | July 26, 2026 | 1,026 RV | 38 | 45 | R+7 |
| University of North Florida | July 17, 2026 | 848 LV | 41 | 46 | R+5 |
| Change Research | May 16, 2026 | 2,070 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 |
| Change Research | May 16, 2026 | 1,593 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 |
| Cherry CommunicationsREP | May 9, 2026 | 604 LV | 39 | 47 | R+8 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | April 27, 2026 | 687 LV | 40 | 40 | D+0 |
| Echelon Insights | April 9, 2026 | 406 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6 |
| MDW Communications | April 3, 2026 | 1,834 LV | 41 | 41 | R+1 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.