Wyoming 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Lisa Kinney
0.2%
Republican
Chuck Gray
99.8%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+32.2
- 80% range
- R+44.6 to R+19.7
- Partisan lean
- R+46.1
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+32.0
- Blended
- R+32.0
- Similar-race shift
- +2.3
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+46.1
- Elasticity
- 0.91
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.6
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+34.3
How it voted for presidenttwo-party
- 2024 margin
- R+47.0
- 2020 margin
- R+45.0
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+2.0
- Votes cast, 2024
- 269,048
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
Who lives hereCensus ACS
- Population
- 441,337
- Median age
- 49.2
- Median household income
- $72,800
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 29%
- White
- 84%
- Black
- 1%
- Hispanic
- 9%
- Asian
- 1%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.