South Dakota — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Brian Bengs is on the general-election ballot. No public poll has included this candidate, so the model has nothing to estimate a separate probability from and the two-party figures above do not account for them. That is a gap in the available polling, not a judgement about the candidacy.
- Projected margin
- R+26.7
- 80% range
- R+38.2 to R+15.2
- Partisan lean
- R+28.9
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+26.5
- Blended
- R+26.5
- Similar-race shift
- +1.6
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+28.9
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- −0.8
- Fundraising
- −3.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+28.1
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rounds | REP | $3.2M | $2.7M |
| Julian C Beaudion | DEM | $228k | $3k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.