Tennessee — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Marquita Bradshaw
1%
Republican
Bill Hagerty
99%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+27.6
- 80% range
- R+40.4 to R+14.7
- Partisan lean
- R+28.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.08×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
87%
Polls 13%Fundamentals 87%
- Polling average
- R+20.0
- Fundamentals
- R+28.4
- Blended
- R+27.4
- Similar-race shift
- +2.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 8.4 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- August 26, 2026
- Democrat
- 31.0%
- Republican
- 51.0%
- Undecided / other
- 18.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+28.2
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −4.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+30.7
The polls behind this number1 most recent of 1 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | August 26, 2026 | 1,157 RV | 31 | 51 | R+20 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | REP | $7.2M | $5.2M |
| Marquita Bradshaw | DEM | $2k | $1k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.