New York 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Christopher Gallant
23%
Republican
Nick LaLota
77%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+9.2
- 80% range
- R+25.4 to D+7.0
- Partisan lean
- R+7.8
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.52%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.18×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+6.8
- Fundamentals
- R+8.8
- Blended
- R+8.6
- Similar-race shift
- −0.9
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- December 11, 2025
- Democrat
- 36.1%
- Republican
- 42.9%
- Undecided / other
- 21.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+7.8
- Elasticity
- 1.10
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −1.3
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+7.9