Idaho — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Todd Achilles is on the general-election ballot. No public poll has included this candidate, so the model has nothing to estimate a separate probability from and the two-party figures above do not account for them. That is a gap in the available polling, not a judgement about the candidacy.
- Projected margin
- R+36.3
- 80% range
- R+47.9 to R+24.8
- Partisan lean
- R+35.8
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+36.1
- Blended
- R+36.1
- Similar-race shift
- +2.2
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+35.8
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- −0.8
- Fundraising
- −3.9
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+38.4
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael D Crapo | REP | $1.1M | $3.0M |
| David Jordan Roth | DEM | $15k | $279 |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.