Ohio 4th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+35.6
- 80% range
- R+47.1 to R+24.1
- Partisan lean
- R+42.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+35.4
- Blended
- R+35.4
- Similar-race shift
- +1.8
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+42.2
- Elasticity
- 0.91
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −4.1
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+37.2
- 2024 margin
- R+43.0
- 2020 margin
- R+41.0
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+2.0
- Votes cast, 2024
- 396,335
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 601,807
- Median age
- 50.4
- Median household income
- $68,000
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 23%
- White
- 88%
- Black
- 6%
- Hispanic
- 2%
- Asian
- 2%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| James D. Jordan | REP | $4.8M | $6.0M |
| Tamara Wilson | DEM | $22k | $521k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.