Minnesota — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Peggy Flanagan
77%
Republican
Michele Tafoya
23%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+5.0
- 80% range
- R+4.0 to D+14.1
- Partisan lean
- D+5.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.24×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
58%42%
Polls 58%Fundamentals 42%
- Polling average
- D+2.8
- Fundamentals
- D+13.5
- Blended
- D+5.2
- Similar-race shift
- −0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 10.7 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 6
- Distinct pollsters
- 5
- Most recent
- October 4, 2026
- Democrat
- 45.9%
- Republican
- 43.1%
- Undecided / other
- 7.2%
- Spread between polls
- 1.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+5.4
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.6
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+13.8
The polls behind this number6 most recent of 6 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQRDEM | October 4, 2026 | 800 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
| Big Data Poll | September 30, 2026 | 622 LV | 46 | 44 | D+2 |
| SurveyUSA | September 14, 2026 | 654 LV | 42 | 42 | D+0 |
| Quantus Insights | September 10, 2026 | 720 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
| SurveyUSA | August 17, 2026 | 661 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5 |
| Emerson College | February 8, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 47 | 41 | D+7 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angie Craig | DEM | $12.7M | $3.6M |
| Michele Tafoya | REP | $5.3M | $1.4M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.