Alabama — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Everett Wess
6%
Republican
Barry Moore
94%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+23.6
- 80% range
- R+42.8 to R+4.4
- Partisan lean
- R+29.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.69×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
17%83%
Polls 17%Fundamentals 83%
- Polling average
- R+15.0
- Fundamentals
- R+27.3
- Blended
- R+23.0
- Similar-race shift
- +0.6
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 12.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 11, 2026
- Democrat
- 32.0%
- Republican
- 47.0%
- Undecided / other
- 21.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+29.3
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −4.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+28.0