The forecast gave up a little ground overnight. Democrats' chance of winning the Senate is 69%, down from 70%, and their expected seat count is 51.8, from 52.0. In the House their chance is 92%, from 93%, with 238 seats expected rather than 239. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, Democrats need a net gain of four to reach 51, and a 50-50 split would be decided by the Vice President, a Republican. The middle 80% of Senate outcomes now runs from 48 to 55 Democratic seats; yesterday the top of that range was 56.

The generic ballot average, after bias correction, fell from 5.7 points to 5.3, and the national environment from Democrats +7.0 to Democrats +6.8. One change to the model was a reclassification: Big Data Poll's national survey of 27 to 30 October is now tagged as Democratic-sponsored. That is the likely reason for the dip. Generic ballot polls were the largest source of movement in the forecast over the past week, so a small change in that average carries through to the chamber odds.

Florida and Ohio

Florida's Senate race picked up two polls, taking its average from 25 to 27. Stetson University had Ashley Moody ahead of Angie Nixon by 4.0 points, and The Political Matrix/The Listener Group had her ahead by 6.0. Both are independent pollsters, and both showed a narrower gap than the average. Moody's lead moved from 7.8 points to 7.5, and her chance stays at 92%.

The governor's race added three polls, from Stetson, The Political Matrix and ActiVote, which showed Byron Donalds ahead by between 1.5 and 6.0 points. His lead in the average held at 4.9 points over David Jolly, and his chance rose from 80% to 81%.

Ohio produced a small oddity. ActiVote, an independent pollster, published surveys of 400 likely voters in both statewide races, and the averages moved in opposite directions. In the Senate race its poll had Sherrod Brown ahead by 0.4 points, below the average, and his lead over Jon Husted slipped from 1.4 points to 1.3. In the governor's race it had Amy Acton ahead by 1.6 points, and her lead over Vivek Ramaswamy went from 1.6 to 1.8. Brown is at 60% and Acton at 62%. Neither move is large.

The biggest single move among the races was in Alabama's governor race, where Tommy Tuberville's lead over Doug Jones fell from 7.5 points to 6.5 with no change in the number of polls. His chance of winning is 87%, from 89%.

Kansas

In the Senate race, Adam Hamilton leads incumbent Roger Marshall by 2.3 points, unchanged from yesterday, with a 66% chance of winning. The race is rated Lean D, and the average rests on 15 polls, the same number as yesterday. The seat is now held by Republicans.

The governor's race, for an open seat now held by Democrats, has moved slightly towards the Republican. Ty Masterson leads Cindy Holscher by 3.2 points, from 3.1 yesterday, and his chance of winning is 72%, from 71%. The race is rated Lean R, with 10 polls in the average, unchanged from yesterday.

The close ones

With two days left, several races are within a point or so. Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan in Alaska's Senate race by 0.1 points, a 51% chance, down from a 0.2-point lead yesterday. Georgia's governor race has Rick Jackson ahead of Keisha Lance Bottoms by 0.1 points, a 50% chance. Ashley Hinson leads Josh Turek in Iowa's Senate race by 0.5 points, at 54%. In Nevada's governor race Joe Lombardo leads Aaron Ford by 0.8 points, at 56%.

These are close to coin flips, and the record backs that up. Among 128 races where the leader was ahead by under 2 points two to three weeks out, the leader won 49% of the time. For leads of 2 to 5 points the figure was 66% across 205 races, and for leads of 5 to 10 points it was 85% across 192. Races such as Alabama's governor contest, at 6.5 points, sit in that last band. Peltola's lead and Jackson's are well inside the first.