The Kansas Senate race changed hands in the forecast overnight. Adam Hamilton, the Democrat, leads Roger Marshall, the Republican incumbent, by 0.7 points and has a 55% chance of winning. Yesterday Marshall led by 0.8 points with a 56% chance. That is a move of 1.5 points towards Hamilton.

The average went from 12 polls to 13, and the addition was a CNN/SSRS survey, independent of either party, of 838 likely voters fielded 20 to 26 October. It found Hamilton ahead 49% to 45%. The average is still much closer than that poll, and the race is rated Tilt D. Leads of under 2 points two to three weeks out have been won by the leader 49% of the time, so the label matters less than the margin.

The same CNN poll found no such shift in the Kansas governor's race. It had Ty Masterson, the Republican, ahead of Cindy Holscher by 5 points. His lead in the average is 4.7 points, up 1.0 on yesterday, and his chance is 79%. The Hill reported that the RNC will put President Trump into tele-rallies in 19 states, after in-person events in Iowa and Kansas were cancelled.

The Senate count

The chance of Democrats winning the Senate rose from 62% to 65%, and their expected seat count from 51.2 to 51.6. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for 51. At 50-50 the Vice President decides, and the Vice President is a Republican. The middle 80% of simulated outcomes now runs from 48 to 55 Democratic seats, where yesterday it ended at 54.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed's lead over Mike Rogers is 4.1 points, up 0.5, with 47 polls in the average against 44 yesterday. CNN/SSRS had him ahead by 7 points and the Michigan State University/Verasight survey by 9.2. A Democratic-aligned poll from Upswing Research found a 5-point lead. In Texas, which is not among the races that changed today, CNN/SSRS found James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton 49% to 43%, and two other independent polls this week had him up 2 and 3 points.

Alaska went the other way. Mary Peltola has narrowed Dan Sullivan's lead from 1.0 point to 0.1, and Sullivan's chance is 51%. The poll count there fell from 15 to 13. Axios and The Hill reported that Governor Mike Dunleavy, a Republican, stopped short of committing to certify the Senate result if Peltola wins while an investigation continues. Peltola has denied involvement in the alleged scheme.

Over the week, the Senate figure has been pulled in two directions. Eight new generic-ballot polls, from pollsters including Cygnal, Echelon Insights, HarrisX and Ipsos, lowered it, and the generic-ballot average after bias correction is now 5.4 points, down from 5.8. State polls in Michigan and Texas raised it.

The House and some changed names

The generic-ballot slip shows more in the House. The chance of a Democratic majority is 91%, down from 93%, and the expected Democratic seat count is 238, one fewer than yesterday. The national environment is Democrats +6.9 to +6.8. A majority needs 218.

Several day-on-day comparisons are muddied by candidate changes. The model's roster of 63 nominees was corrected against official 2026 lists overnight, and some races now show different names from yesterday. Alaska's governor race compared Tom Begich with Bernadette Wilson yesterday. Today it is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, the Democrat, ahead by 4.2 points with a 76% chance, and two more polls are in the average. In Rhode Island's governor race, Helena Foulkes now faces Aaron Guckian instead of Elaine Pelino, and her lead is 14.7 points, down from 19.5. Her chance of winning is 99%.

South Carolina's Senate race changed in the same way. Yesterday it was a generic Republican against Annie Andrews, with one poll in the average. Today Darline Graham, the Republican, leads Andrews by 3.7 points on 11 polls and has a 75% chance. NPR reported that Trump visited the state for the second time in eight days. An East Carolina University poll, independent, had Graham ahead by 3.9 points.