The biggest move since yesterday came in Alabama, where both statewide averages narrowed sharply. In the Senate race, Barry Moore's lead over Everett Wess fell from 20.5 points to 13.8. In the governor's race, Tommy Tuberville's lead over Doug Jones went from 14.5 points to 8.0. Both shifts are towards the Democrat.

Each average gained exactly one poll: a Blueprint Polling survey of 695 likely voters, fielded 22 to 24 October. Blueprint's sponsor is independent. It put Moore ahead by 8.3 points and Tuberville ahead by 3.0. The forecast's code and inputs were not changed in the last day, so the movement comes from that poll alone.

Why one survey moved so much

Alabama is thinly polled. The Senate average now holds five polls and the governor average six, and polls carry 60% and 57% of the weight in the two races.

Moore's chance of winning is 97%, down from 100% yesterday, and the race is rated Safe R. Tuberville's chance fell from 99% to 90%, and his race is rated Likely R. For context, leads of 5 to 10 points two to three weeks before an election have been held by the leader 85% of the time across 192 past races. Leads of more than 10 points have held 98% of the time across 467. Tuberville's 90% sits a little above the first figure.

The national picture barely registered the change. Democrats' chance of winning the Senate is 62%, up from 61%, with an expected 51.2 seats, unchanged. The middle 80% of outcomes still runs from 48 to 54 Democratic seats. Republicans hold 53 seats now, so Democrats need a net gain of four for 51. In a 50-50 Senate the Vice President, a Republican, would decide. The House forecast is steady at 93% for Democrats, with an expected 239 seats against 240 yesterday.

Smaller moves elsewhere

In Texas, a YouGov Blue poll, independent, had James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by 8.0 points. The Senate average has 48 polls, so it moved only from a 1.6-point Talarico lead to 1.9. His chance rose from 61% to 63%. The same pollster had Gina Hinojosa 3.0 points ahead of Greg Abbott. The governor average, with 43 polls, still has Abbott ahead, but by 3.2 points rather than 3.6.

Wisconsin's governor average gained two polls, taking it from 10 to 12, and David Crowley's lead over Tom Tiffany grew from 3.9 points to 4.6. His chance of winning is 79%, up from 75%. One of the new polls was Marquette Law School's, independent, with Crowley 7.0 points ahead. The other was from Wick, which is Republican-aligned, and it had him ahead by 3.1.

Georgia's governor race is now dead even. Rick Jackson led Keisha Lance Bottoms by 0.5 points yesterday and had a 54% chance. Today he has 50%. The poll count did not change, and a State Navigate poll published in the period, independent, had Bottoms ahead by 3.0.

Michigan's Senate race moved 0.5 points towards Abdul El-Sayed, who leads Mike Rogers by 3.6 points and has a 73% chance, up from 70%. Axios and Politico reported on Republican attacks on El-Sayed in the final week of the campaign.

In Alaska, Fox News and NBC News reported on a New York Times investigation alleging that Mary Peltola's campaign and Democratic Party aides recruited spoiler candidates in the Senate race. Dan Sullivan's lead over Peltola is 1.0 points, against 0.9 yesterday.