The largest move since yesterday came in Minnesota, where Peggy Flanagan's lead over Michele Tafoya in the Senate race grew from 6.2 to 8.4 points. Her chance of winning rose from 84% to 92%.

The cause is a new poll. The New York Times/Siena University, an independent pollster, surveyed 752 likely voters between 19 and 26 October and found Flanagan on 54% and Tafoya on 40%. The Minnesota average had 12 polls yesterday and has 13 today. No changes were made to the model in the past day, so the movement came entirely from the new survey.

That poll showed a gap well above the average, which is why one survey moved it by 2.2 points. The same Times/Siena sample put the Democrat ahead by 18 points in the governor's race. Minnesota is an open seat that Democrats already hold, so this is a defence rather than a pickup. The Senate needs a net gain of four seats for Democrats to reach 51, and a 50-50 chamber would be decided by the Vice President, a Republican. Historically, leaders by 5 to 10 points two to three weeks out went on to win 85% of the time. The model is more confident than that about Flanagan.

Nationally, the chance that Democrats win the Senate rose from 60% to 61%, and their expected seat count from 51.1 to 51.2. The middle 80% of outcomes is still 48 to 54 Democratic seats. The House is unchanged at a 93% chance for Democrats and 240 expected seats. The generic ballot average, after bias correction, slipped from 6.1 to 5.9 points, and the national environment from Democrats +7.0 to +6.9.

Two governor races move towards the Republicans

In Maine, the governor's average shifted 1.9 points towards Robert Charles. Hannah Pingree now leads by 11.0 points, down from 12.9, and her chance of winning is 97%. Two polls were added, taking the count from 11 to 13. Marist University, with 1,449 likely voters, found the race tied at 44% each. Echelon Insights, with 413 likely voters, had Pingree ahead by 13 points. Both are independent pollsters. The gap between them is large.

Marist and Echelon also polled the Maine Senate race, and that average moved the other way. Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins by 2.6 points, up 0.3, with a 68% chance. Marist had Jackson ahead by 2 points and Echelon by 7.

In Nebraska, Jim Pillen's lead over Lynne Walz grew from 6.2 to 7.8 points, and his chance of winning from 86% to 91%. The cause is a single Echelon Insights poll of 407 likely voters, which had Pillen ahead 47% to 40%. It took the Nebraska count from 7 to 8. Maine and Nebraska therefore moved the same way, towards the Republican, while Minnesota moved towards the Democrat.

Texas holds steady

Texas had two new polls, and its average did not move. James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 1.6 points, with a 61% chance, the same as yesterday. A YouGov survey of registered voters had Talarico ahead by 5 points. Cor Strategies, a Republican-aligned pollster, had him ahead by 4 among likely voters. There are 47 polls in the average, and 76% of the weight is on them.

Axios reported today that Senate Republicans see Iowa moving their way and Ohio slipping, and that half a dozen senior operatives struggle to see a majority beyond 51 seats. Our averages for both states are close. Ashley Hinson leads in Iowa by 0.1 points, and Sherrod Brown leads in Ohio by 1.6, after a 0.6-point move towards Jon Husted today.