The largest move in today's forecast came in Alaska's governor race, where Tom Begich, the Democrat, now leads Bernadette Wilson, the Republican, by 1.8 points. Yesterday his lead was 1.4. His chance of winning rose from 59% to 62%, and the race stays rated Tilt D. The seat is open and is currently held by a Republican.

The poll count did not change (five polls in the average both days), and no changes were made to the model, so there is no new survey to point to. The polls carry 37% of the weight in the estimate. Fundamentals carry 38% and expert ratings 25%. A lead under 2 points is still a narrow one. Among races polled two to three weeks out with leads that small, the leader went on to win 49% of the time.

Alaska's Senate race and the week's coverage

ABC News, NBC News and The Guardian reported that Mary Peltola, the Democratic Senate candidate, and her family suffered minor injuries on Saturday when another vehicle struck their car on the way to the Alaska Federation of Natives banquet. Her campaign said she required medical attention and delayed campaign stops.

ABC News, Axios and Reason also covered a federal lawsuit from the Justice Department. It seeks to block Alaska's Senate results on the grounds that voters might confuse the Republican incumbent, Dan Sullivan, with a separate Republican candidate, Dan L. Sullivan. The Reason piece argued that no legal basis exists for overturning congressional results on those grounds.

Sullivan leads Peltola by 0.8 points, up from 0.7, and his chance of winning is 55% on both days.

A slight drift elsewhere

Most of the rest of the board moved by about a tenth of a point, nearly all of it towards Republicans. In the Senate, that covered Ohio, Michigan and Maine. Sherrod Brown still leads in Ohio, with a 65% chance. Abdul El-Sayed leads in Michigan with 68%. In governor races, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, Vermont, Florida, Nebraska and Oregon all shifted the same small distance in the same direction. None of these changes altered a rating or a favourite.

Maine is the one place with a visible cause. A Trafalgar Group poll, from a Republican-aligned sponsor, put Susan Collins ahead of Troy Jackson by 0.5 points among 1,077 likely voters, fielded 21 to 23 October. The race's poll count rose from 22 to 23, and Jackson's lead in the average slipped from 2.4 to 2.3 points. His chance of winning stayed at 66%.

At the national level, the generic ballot average after bias correction eased from 6.2 to 6.1 points for Democrats. The national environment is unchanged at Democrats +7.0. The chance of Democrats winning the Senate went from 61% to 60%, while the expected number of Democratic seats held at 51.1. The middle range of outcomes still runs from 48 to 54 seats. Republicans hold 53 seats now, Democrats need a net gain of four to reach 51, and a 50-50 Senate would be decided by the Vice President, a Republican.

In the House, the Democratic chance is 93% on both days, and the expected Democratic seat count slipped from 241 to 240, against the 218 needed for a majority.

The Pennsylvania House polls from the New York Times/Siena series, published since yesterday, were covered in Sunday's piece.