The largest moves since yesterday came in Pennsylvania, where the New York Times/Siena University published four district polls, all of likely voters, each with about 400 respondents. The forecast's poll count rose from six to seven in both the 1st and 10th districts. No model changes were made in the last day, so the movement came from the new data. The two races moved in opposite directions.

In the 1st, Brian Fitzpatrick led Robert Harvie by 0.6 points yesterday and had a 54% chance. Today Harvie leads by 3.2 points, with a 72% chance, a shift of 3.8 points towards the Democrat. The Siena poll itself had Harvie ahead 48% to 46%, or 2.4 points, so the average now sits above that single reading. Fitzpatrick is the incumbent and is running.

In the 10th, Siena found Janelle Stelson and Scott Perry level at 48% each, with Perry ahead by 0.4 points once decimals are counted. Stelson's lead in the average fell from 2.0 points to 0.2, and her chance of winning fell from 64% to 51%. Historically, leads of under 2 points at this stage have been won by the leader 49% of the time. Perry is also an incumbent seeking re-election.

The same Siena series polled two other Pennsylvania districts. It found Democrats ahead by 5.1 points in the 7th and 4.1 points in the 8th.

Ohio's 1st narrows

A third House race moved towards the Republican. Quantus Insights, an independent pollster, surveyed 561 likely voters in Ohio's 1st from 19 to 21 October and found Greg Landsman ahead of Eric Conroy by 3.7 points. That was smaller than the lead already in the average, which fell from 9.1 points to 7.3. Landsman's chance slipped from 93% to 89%.

With three polls in the average, polls carry 27% of the weight in this race. The remaining 73% comes from fundamentals, which is why one poll, even a lower reading, leaves Landsman a clear favourite. He is the incumbent.

The national picture, and Alaska

The Pennsylvania moves largely offset each other. Democrats' chance of winning the Senate is 61%, as it was yesterday, with 51.1 seats expected. Their chance in the House is 93%, with 241 seats expected. The national environment is Democrats +7.0, against +7.1 yesterday.

In Alaska, Axios and Reason reported that the Justice Department had sued to block the state's Senate results if the Republican incumbent, Dan Sullivan, loses, citing possible voter confusion with a separate candidate with a similar name. NBC News reported that lawyers for Democratic candidate Mary Peltola and for Senate Democrats had filed a motion asking a federal judge to dismiss the suit. The forecast for the Senate race did not change: Sullivan leads by 0.7 points, with a 55% chance.

The Alaska governor's race did move, with no change in its poll count. Tom Begich's lead over Bernadette Wilson narrowed from 2.1 points to 1.4, a shift of 0.7 points towards Wilson. Begich's chance fell from 63% to 59%.