The largest move of the day was in Vermont. Yesterday the forecast had Amanda Janoo, the Democrat, ahead of Governor Phil Scott by 8.4 points, with a 91% chance of winning. Today it has Scott ahead by 3.0 points and gives him a 67% chance. That is a swing of 11.3 points in one day, and the race is now rated Lean R.

Vermont's average rose from three polls to five, and the model added the New York Times poll database as a second source yesterday. The polls now make up 69% of the estimate.

Oregon's average went from three polls to eight. Governor Tina Kotek's lead over Christine Drazan fell from 5.9 points to 2.4, and her chance of winning dropped from 82% to 65%. The race is rated Tilt D. In our history of races polled two to three weeks out, leads of between 2 and 5 points held up about 66% of the time, so the model's figures for both states are close to what such leads have usually delivered.

Other averages that filled out

The same pattern appears elsewhere. Texas's governor average grew from 22 polls to 40. Greg Abbott's lead widened from 1.8 points to 3.2, and his chance rose from 62% to 71%. Emerson College's latest Texas results had Abbott ahead by 4.0 to 4.5 points, while Pollfinity had Gina Hinojosa ahead by 1.0.

Two House races show it more sharply. In Arizona's 2nd district, an average that had no polls yesterday now has three, including an Emerson poll with Jonathan Nez ahead by 2.0. Eli Crane's lead shrank from 11.0 points to 1.0, and his chance fell from 91% to 57%. In Pennsylvania's 1st, the average went from one poll to six. Robert Harvie led by 4.8 points yesterday, and Brian Fitzpatrick now leads by 0.3, a roughly even race at 52%.

The Senate

The Democratic chance of winning the Senate slipped from 65% to 63%, and the expected Democratic seat count from 51.4 to 51.3. The central range of outcomes is unchanged at 48 to 55 seats. Two races moved in opposite directions.

In Kansas, Roger Marshall's lead over Adam Hamilton fell from 2.4 points to 0.4, and his chance of winning from 66% to 53%. That average grew from four polls to 12. NPR and Politico reported that President Trump announced $8 billion in aid for farmers at a Monday rally for Marshall.

In Maine, Susan Collins gained ground. Troy Jackson's lead over her fell from 3.9 points to 2.6, and his chance from 75% to 67%. The average rose from 14 polls to 22, and one of the new ones, from Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, had the two candidates tied at 49%.

The House barely moved. Democrats have a 94% chance of control, down from 95%, and are expected to win 242 seats, up from 241. The national environment is Democrats +7.1, against +7.2 yesterday, and the bias-corrected generic ballot average is 6.3, down from 6.5.