The national numbers did not move today. Democrats have a 60% chance of winning the Senate, with an expected 51.1 seats, and a 93% chance in the House. The changes were in two governor's races, and they went in opposite directions.

Michigan widens on a new poll

Jocelyn Benson's lead over John James in Michigan grew from 6.1 points to 7.3, and her chance of winning rose from 85% to 89%. The poll count in the average went from 24 to 25. The new entry is a Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov survey, an independent poll of 836 likely voters fielded from 2 to 19 October. It put Benson ahead 53% to 41%, a lead of 12.4 points.

The seat is open and currently Democratic-held. The polls carry 73% of the weight in the forecast and the expert ratings 25%, so a single large result can shift the average noticeably, even with 25 polls in it. Michigan's governor race is rated Likely D.

The same survey asked about the Senate race and found a much closer contest: Abdul El-Sayed 48%, Mike Rogers 46%. The Senate average barely changed. El-Sayed's lead went from 2.9 points to 2.8 as the poll count rose from 42 to 43, and his chance of winning stayed at 68%. The two races were asked of the same respondents and gave answers about ten points apart, which is a reminder that the governor's lead and the Senate lead in Michigan are separate estimates.

Nevada moves the other way

In Nevada, Joe Lombardo's lead over Aaron Ford went from 0.8 points to 1.6, and his chance of winning from 55% to 60%. The number of polls in the average stayed at 8. Lombardo is the incumbent, and the race is rated Tilt R.

A 1.6-point lead is still a small one. In past races that were this close two to three weeks out, a lead of under 2 points was followed by a win for the leader 49% of the time, across 128 races. Leads of 2 to 5 points held 66% of the time. The forecast's 60% for Lombardo sits between those two figures. Two other governor's races are in the same narrow territory: Rick Jackson leads in Georgia by 0.8 points, unchanged, and Tom Begich leads in Alaska by 1.6, down 0.2 from yesterday.

Alaska's Senate race, in the news but not in the average

ABC News and Axios reported that the Justice Department filed a federal lawsuit seeking to block the state's Senate results on the grounds that voters might confuse Senator Dan Sullivan with another Republican candidate with a similar name. ABC News and NBC News also reported that Mary Peltola and her family suffered minor injuries in a car crash on Saturday while driving to a campaign stop, and that she delayed campaign events afterwards.

The forecast did not change. Sullivan leads Peltola by 0.8 points with a 55% chance of winning, the same as yesterday, on 16 polls. The race is rated Tilt R.

What the Senate depends on

Republicans hold 53 seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four for a 51-seat majority. A 50-50 Senate would be decided by the Vice President, a Republican. The forecast's central range of outcomes runs from 48 to 54 Democratic seats.

The closest Senate races are Iowa, where Ashley Hinson leads by 0.2 points, Kansas, where Roger Marshall leads by 0.7, and Alaska. Texas, where James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 1.6 points, is a little wider. The first three are near a coin flip, and none of the four moved today.