Iowa's Senate race changed hands in the forecast overnight. Yesterday Josh Turek, the Democrat, led Ashley Hinson by 0.6 points and had a 54% chance of winning. Today Hinson, the Republican, leads by 0.2 points and has 51%. The seat is open and Republicans currently hold it.

The average took in one new poll, which brought the count from 26 to 27. It came from InsiderAdvantage, rated independent, which surveyed 1,200 likely voters on 21 and 22 October and found Hinson ahead by 2.0 points. Five new Iowa polls over the past week have made Iowa the largest single source of drift in the Senate forecast. Fox News reported from a Trump rally in Sioux City that the race was tightening, though that coverage is not what moved the numbers.

A 0.2-point lead is not much of a lead. In past races polled two to three weeks out, leaders ahead by less than 2 points went on to win 49% of the time, which is a coin flip.

A small drift across the Senate map

Democrats' chance of winning the Senate is 61%, down from 63%. Their expected seat count is 51.1, down from 51.3, and the middle range of outcomes now runs from 48 to 54 seats rather than 48 to 55. Republicans hold 53 seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four to reach 51. The expected figure sits almost exactly on that line. A 50-50 Senate would be decided by the Vice President, a Republican.

Iowa was not the only Senate race to move towards the Republican. InsiderAdvantage also polled Michigan and Ohio on the same two days, with the same sample size and the same independent sponsor. In Michigan its poll had Abdul El-Sayed ahead by 1.0 point. The average there moved from 3.4 to 2.9 points for El-Sayed, and his chance fell from 71% to 68%. In Ohio the poll had Sherrod Brown ahead by 3.0 points, yet the average edged 0.3 points towards Jon Husted, leaving Brown ahead by 2.4 points with a 66% chance. ABC News reported that Barack Obama will campaign with the Democratic Senate candidates in both states.

Alaska moved by only 0.2 points towards Dan Sullivan, who leads Mary Peltola by 0.7 points with a 55% chance. Axios reported that the Justice Department has filed a lawsuit seeking to block or delay the state's Senate results, citing possible voter confusion between Sullivan and another candidate with a similar name.

The national picture barely changed. The generic ballot average, after bias correction, slipped from Democrats +6.3 to +6.2, and the national environment is unchanged at Democrats +7.1.

Virginia's 1st district tightens

The largest move of the day was in the House. In Virginia's 1st district, Shannon Taylor, the Democrat, led Rob Wittman by 2.2 points yesterday with a 65% chance. Today her lead is 0.5 points and her chance is 53%, a move of 1.7 points towards Wittman, the Republican incumbent. The race is rated Tilt D.

The average gained a fifth poll, from Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-aligned firm. It surveyed 570 likely voters on 21 and 22 October and found Taylor ahead by 1.0 point, narrower than the average it joined. Polls make up only 46% of the estimate in this district, with the rest coming from non-polling fundamentals, so a thinly polled race like this can shift noticeably on a single survey.

Democrats' chance of winning the House is 93%, down a point from 94%. Their expected seat count is 241, down from 242, against the 218 needed for a majority.