In our simulations, Democrats have a 64% chance of winning control of the Senate, up from 62% yesterday, and Republicans have a 36% chance of keeping it. Democrats have a 95% chance of winning the House, up from 94%, and Republicans have a 5% chance of keeping it. The expected Democratic seat count is 51.4 in the Senate and 243 in the House.

Kansas moved towards the Democrat. Senator Roger Marshall now leads Democrat Adam Hamilton by 0.3 points, down from 2.7 yesterday, and his chance of holding the seat has fallen from 68% to 52%. The race is rated Tilt R.

Kansas had four polls in its average yesterday and has 12 today. The model began drawing on the New York Times poll database as a second source in the last day. Polls carry 66% of the weight in this race.

NPR and Politico reported that President Trump announced $8 billion in aid for farmers at a Monday rally for Marshall, with payments not expected until late November or early December at the earliest.

History suggests a lead this size is worth little. Among races where the leader was ahead by under 2 points two to three weeks before polling day, the leader won 49% of the time. In other words, the race is close to a coin toss, except that a coin does not need 12 polls to tell you it is undecided.

Texas splits in two

Texas also moved towards the Democrat, though less sharply. James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 1.6 points, up from 0.5, and his chance of winning has risen from 53% to 61%. The Senate average now holds 44 polls, up from 25.

The new polls published since yesterday show a narrow race. Emerson College had Talarico ahead by 1.5 points, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company had the two tied, ActiVote had Talarico ahead by 2.0, and New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group had him ahead by 5.0. All four are independent.

The governor's race in the same state moved the other way. Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by 3.5 points, up from 2.1, and his chance has risen from 64% to 72%. The same four pollsters found Abbott ahead by between 2.0 and 5.0 points.

Across the chamber, the Democratic chance of winning the Senate is 64%, up from 62%, and the expected Democratic seat count is 51.4, up from 51.2. Democrats need 51 seats for control, because a 50-50 Senate would be decided by the Vice President, a Republican. The middle 80% of outcomes now runs from 48 to 55 Democratic seats, a seat wider at the top than yesterday.

Big swings where few polls had counted

Several of the day's largest moves are in races that had few or no polls in the average yesterday, and they did not all go one way.

In Vermont's governor's race, Phil Scott now leads Amanda Janoo by 3.0 points. Yesterday Janoo led by 8.0. The average holds five polls, up from three. In Kentucky's 6th district, Zach Dembo's lead over Ralph Alvarado went from 12.6 points to 0.8, and his chance from 95% to 54%, with nine polls where there had been three. In New York's 21st, Anthony Constantino now leads by 3.8 points where Blake Gendebien led by 0.9 yesterday; that average has eight polls, up from three. Oregon's governor's race also tightened, with Tina Kotek's lead falling from 5.4 points to 2.3 and her chance from 80% to 65%.

Arizona's 2nd district moved the other way. Jonathan Nez went from 11.4 points behind Eli Crane to 1.1 behind, after the average went from no polls to three, including an Emerson College survey with Nez ahead by 2.0.

The House forecast barely changed overall: Democrats have a 95% chance of winning control, up from 94%, and an expected 243 seats, up from 241. The national environment is Democrats +7.2, against +7.1 yesterday.

Most of these races now rest on polls that were not counted a day ago. A few more could move again before 3 November.